Wembanyama reaches NBA Finals in year three, ahead of historic pace

Before Victor Wembanyama entered the NBA in 2023, Adrian Wojnarowski reported on ESPN that multiple team executives believed the young prospect could become the best player in basketball on both offense and defense by his third season. That prediction seemed bold. No modern player had ever risen to that level so quickly.

For comparison, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won an MVP and championship by his second year, but he played four years of college first. Magic Johnson won Finals MVP as a rookie, but Abdul-Jabbar remained the better player for years. LeBron James reached the Finals in his fourth season but lost to San Antonio and didn't return until his eighth year.

Wembanyama was only 19 when executives made their prediction. He had never played in the NBA. He was not a college player. In the EuroLeague, he averaged just 6.5 points in 17.5 minutes. Luka Dončić won the EuroLeague MVP at the same age. Yet scouts and executives were certain Wembanyama would become the world's best player.

On Saturday night, that prophecy came true. The Spurs defeated the two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Thunder in Game 7 on the road. Wembanyama had become the league's best player by year three, just as predicted.

Gilgeous-Alexander struggled partly due to injuries to teammates Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams. But Wembanyama also played without full health, with De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper both hobbled. The Thunder's MVP shot poorly against San Antonio's defense away from the basket. In the first six games, his restricted-area shot attempts fell from 5.4 per game in the regular season to just three per game. Without the paint, he managed only 32.1% shooting outside the restricted area, 38.3% in mid-range and 26.1% on three-pointers.

Most young superstars need multiple playoff runs before reaching the Finals. Michael Jordan lost to the Detroit Pistons three times before winning. LeBron James lost to Boston twice and nearly lost again in 2012. The usual path involves a young star losing to established powers before finally breaking through. Wembanyama skipped that step. The Spurs won four of five regular-season matchups against Oklahoma City, then beat them in their first playoff meeting.

This is likely the worst version of Wembanyama fans will ever see. He remains far from his peak. Oklahoma City's defense kept him away from the rim effectively. In Game 1, he had 23 paint touches. In Games 2 through 6 combined, he managed only 33. Over time, his young teammates will improve at passing him the ball inside. He may add muscle to handle Oklahoma City's physical style. His post moves, developed through offseason work with Hakeem Olajuwon, will continue improving.

The New York Knicks present a serious obstacle in the Finals. They beat the Spurs twice in the regular season, including in the NBA Cup final. They arrived at the Finals after a surprising run through the Eastern Conference. Wembanyama could still lose, repeating the stumbles that Jordan and James experienced on their paths to greatness.

Yet the basketball world identified Wembanyama's trajectory before he played a single NBA game. That vision has already proven correct. He reached the league's best-player status in his third season, just as predicted. With that outlandish belief validated, other bold predictions about his future may also come true. He possesses a combination of size, skill and temperament no other player has ever matched. If his career follows the expected path, he could become the greatest player in NBA history.