Europe warms twice as fast as the rest of the world

Western Europe is gripped by an unseasonable spring heat wave. Unusually hot temperatures stretch from the UK and Ireland in the north through Germany, France, and into Spain and Italy. A "heat dome"—a slow-moving high-pressure system from northern Africa—is trapping hot air over the continent like a lid on boiling water.

These intense weather systems have become far more common in Europe over the past 25 years, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The change is fueling more frequent and extreme heat waves across the region. "Temperatures on this scale were once exceptional even at the height of summer," said Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London. "This record-breaking heat has the fingerprints of climate change all over it."

Previous analyses by climate scientists at the World Weather Attribution, which Otto co-founded, examined more than half a dozen European heat waves since 2003. Those studies found the extreme weather was "much more likely and more intense due to human-induced climate change." It remains too early to calculate exactly how much the current heat wave was amplified by greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

The latest European State of the Climate report, released in April, found that at least 95 percent of the continent experienced above-average annual temperatures in 2025. Intense heat waves above 30 Celsius reached as far north as the Arctic Circle. Sea surface temperature hit the "highest on record." "Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and the impacts are already severe," said Florian Pappenberger, head of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, one of the agencies behind the report.

Europe is heating at roughly double the global average rate. The average temperature has risen 2.5 Celsius (4.3 Fahrenheit) compared with pre-industrial levels from the late 19th century. Worldwide, the average increase stands at 1.4 Celsius. This acceleration stems partly from Europe's geography. The continent sits near the Arctic, which is warming even faster than Europe itself.

The North Pole's average temperature has already increased by more than 3.3 Celsius, according to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. A key reason: the Arctic Ocean, now darker and ice-free in many areas, absorbs more sunlight than ice does. Ice reflects sunlight back into space; dark water absorbs it. The same "albedo effect" is happening across Europe. Mountain regions like the Alps, once frozen year-round or late into summer, are increasingly snow-free. Darker ground reflects less solar radiation back into space, accelerating warming.

Scientists have also linked Europe's warming to shifts in the jet stream, a high-altitude river of wind flowing toward Europe from the west. Climate change has disrupted these once-stable winds, creating more extreme weather patterns that linger longer. A 2022 study led by Efi Rousi, then a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, found that periods when the jet stream splits into two branches have increased. This produces more heat waves, especially in western Europe. "During double jet states the weather systems get diverted northwards and persistent heatwaves can develop over western Europe," Rousi said.

Paradoxically, efforts to clean up air pollution have contributed to warming in Europe. Stricter air quality regulations since the 1980s have reduced airborne particles. Before those rules took effect, tiny reflective sulfate and nitrate particles from car exhaust and factory smokestacks indirectly cooled the continent by reflecting sunlight and "partially offset the warming caused by increased greenhouse gases." Cleaner air means less of this cooling effect.

Climate scientists have stressed that this finding does not justify abandoning efforts to reduce emissions. A new report from the UN's World Meteorological Agency and the UK's Met Office forecasts near-record global temperatures over the next five years. The study says it is "likely" the world will see a new hottest-ever year before 2031. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for efforts to minimize temperature rise to "build a safer, fairer, and more resilient future for all." Last week, the UN voted to continue supporting a "rapid, just, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels." The rapid rollout of renewable energy since 2000 has already shifted warming trends away from worst-case scenarios.